More Guns, Less Crime? The Data They Don’t Want to Talk About

Despite increased gun ownership, we are seeing a decrease in violent crime across the board.

How many times have you heard that more guns equal more gun deaths? It is a popular talking point among anti-gun groups and politicians. The data, however, does not back up that narrative.

In recent years we have seen crime across the United States, especially homicide, dropping. This is great to see especially since it is not going down just slightly. Early projections show 2025 could see one of the largest drops in homicide ever recorded. We are seeing estimates around a 20% decline in violent crime.

We are seeing robbery down nearly 20% as well as aggravated assault down around 9%.  Rape is down nearly 9% in some datasets which is good news for everyone in the United States. These trends are being reported by multiple sources. We are seeing it in Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA), Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), and the Real-Time Crime Index.

The part that everyone is ignoring, however, is if the anti-gun narrative were true, gun ownership should also be going down. That is not what we are seeing at all. We are in fact seeing more guns, and more gun owners, enter the market than ever before. Particularly during COVID which saw a massive spike in firearm sales gun sales continue to be strong.

We have seen tens of millions of new firearms in civilian hands over the past couple of years alone. How can those claiming more guns equal more crime explain this increase in firearm ownership while crime rates continue to drop?

The Key Point

We are seeing even the firearm industry acknowledges this nuance. Lawrence Keane of the National Shooting Sports Foundation put it plainly, “This is not a claim that guns ‘cause’ crime to fall… Crime is driven by offender behavior, enforcement, prosecution and local conditions.”

He also made an important point, that the data directly contradicts the claim that more guns automatically lead to more violence. This is one of those narrative busting facts that all gun owners need to be aware of.

The Deterrence Factor

There is a huge factor in the background in why the data does not back up the claim. It is because armed citizens often deter crime. This is true whether it’s criminals thinking twice about a target or victims successfully defend themselves. The mere presence of firearms in lawful hands can often change outcomes.

This shows what we at 2 If By Sea Tactical call a policy disconnect. When leaders pass laws that are not backed by data but just their own personal politics, we see things start to break down. Because despite the falling crime rates and rising gun ownership, we are still seeing calls for more gun control.

A Perfect Example

Let’s look at Virginia for example. They, like many other states in the United States, have crime trending downward. Their violent crime has decreased across all categories in 2024. That is coupled with the fact that Virginia’s crime rate is already below the national average.

Yet we are seeing lawmakers pushing for bans on common semi-auto firearms and magazine capacity limits. Their list of gun control does not end there, they are expanding restrictions on ownership and carry and attempting to bypass federal protections like PLCAA.

Everything that they are doing here does nothing to target criminals. Instead, they target law-abiding citizens. When know this because criminals do not follow gun laws. They do not register firearms and do not care about restrictions. What we actually see is that it is repeat offenders driving violent crime more times than not.

So if we are seeing crime decreasing and gun ownership increasing. This clearly points to that law-abiding citizens aren’t the problem. One must ask then why the continued push for restrictions?

We have to answer this with the obvious answer. These gun control bills are not about crime. If they were, then the focus would be on the criminals committing crimes. Instead, we see the focus remaining on limiting access and increasing restrictions with the overall goal of reducing lawful ownership.

Here at 2 If By Sea Tactical we strive to bring you the best experience in the firearms world.  As we continue to grow the media arm of 2 If By Sea, make sure you keep tuning in to our Youtube and Rumble channels and right here at “The Patriot’s Almanac” to stay informed on the latest happenings in the firearm world! But we are not lawyers, so this isn't legal guidance. We are proud to be Southern Minnesota source for all things 2A.

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